Corbin Burnes, one and done.

The Orioles’ blockbuster trade acquisition of a winter ago will not be returning to Baltimore for 2025 after he reportedly signed a six-year, $210 million free agent contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend. Burnes, 30, and his agent Scott Boras publicly remained open to re-signing with the Orioles but instead opted to remain where his young family had made its offseason home in the Phoenix area.

With most of the top starting pitchers in free agency already signed, Burnes’ departure leaves a significant void in the Orioles’ rotation. The four-time All-Star was spectacular in his lone season with the club, going 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts in 32 starts en route to a fifth-place finish in American League Cy Young Award voting. Burnes was also at his best in the playoffs, allowing one run in eight innings against the Kansas City Royals in the wild-card round.

“More than held up his end of the bargain,” Orioles executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said of Burnes on Oct. 3.

“We did push chips into this season with that trade, and it’s a shame we weren’t able to carry his impact further into the playoffs because we saw what he was capable of doing for us. But that’s part of sports, sometimes. It doesn’t work out well. But bringing in Corbin Burnes this season certainly did work out well from my point of view, and it was just tremendously impressive watching him do his thing.”

There is no obvious one-for-one replacement for a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber. The Orioles, regardless of any other additions they might make, will need several of the starters they already have to pitch to their potential in his absence. None have greater upside than Grayson Rodriguez, who has flashed ace potential over the first two years of his career.

“If you don’t have that true No. 1 type of guy, you have guys that can improve also,” manager Brandon Hyde said at the winter meetings. “I think Grayson’s got No. 1 stuff. Grayson could be that guy. I look for him to take a big step forward next year. We need to pick up the pieces, those 33 awesome starts that Burnes gave us and what he brought to our team and continue to see what happens here with the rest of the offseason with what we bring in.”

Rodriguez, 24, was impressive when healthy last season, posting a 3.86 ERA with 130 strikeouts in 20 starts. While shoulder inflammation cost him three weeks in the first half and a lat/teres strain ended his campaign in late July, the former top pitching prospect took an impressive step forward in his sophomore season. He leaned less on his fastball and fully utilized his four-pitch repertoire, developing his slider and curveball into trusted weapons alongside his changeup.

The improvement led to more swing and miss from opposing hitters, putting him within range of elite strikeout production. Rodriguez will have to prove he can stay healthy, but has already shown he can be efficient enough to pitch deep into games; the right-hander failed to reach the sixth inning in only three of his starts. A 200-strikeout season is within a realistic range of outcomes if he puts together a full season.

As is the case with any young pitcher, Rodriguez still battled some inconsistency in 2024. He recorded 14 starts with two runs allowed or fewer but also had three outings in which he gave up six or more. Take away those three implosions, and Rodriguez’s ERA drops to 2.64. Preventing bad days on the mound from becoming disasters might be all he needs to do to thrust himself into the Cy Young Award conversation.

It’s unfair to put the burden of replacing Burnes solely on Rodriguez’s shoulders. The Orioles will look for Zach Eflin to pick up where he left off after he finished last season on a tear and for free-agent addition Tomoyuki Sugano’s success in Japan to translate to MLB. Dean Kremer also pitched well down the stretch in 2024 and Kyle Bradish will hope to rejoin in the rotation in the second half when he finishes rehabilitating from Tommy John elbow surgery.

Baltimore could also reunite with free agent Jack Flaherty, who enjoyed a bounce-back season after struggling with the Orioles in 2023, or part with more prospect capital to swing a trade for another one-year rental in the San Diego Padres’ Dylan Cease. The Seattle Mariners’ Luis Castillo has popped up in trade rumors as well, though the pricey 32-year-old holds a full-no trade clause and his velocity has dipped each of the past two years.

Without Burnes in tow, Rodriguez is the Orioles’ best bet to ascend to his former teammate’s level in 2025. He might be their de facto No. 1 right now, but Rodriguez could be on the cusp of earning the title of an ace.

Baltimore Sun reporter Jacob Calvin Meyer contributed to this article. Have a news tip? Contact Matt Weyrich at mweyrich@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/ByMattWeyrich.